WHY ERIK TEN HAG WILL FAIL
We want to start by stating this article isn't reactionary to recent results or how Manchester United have started the season. This is an honest assessment that tries to provide analysis as to why we believe Eric Ten Hag (ETH) will fail at Manchester United. We will quickly look at how Ten Hag played at Ajax, and how implementing the same approach to Manchester United is a mistake. Unfortunately, it doesn't stop there as there's a whole host of off field issues that will hinder his ability to be successful at Manchester United. If you prefer to get a quick snapshot, have a look at the images and read the TL:DR at the end of this article.
Philosophy at Ajax & Manchester United
Prior to ETH's arrival in 2017/18, Ajax hadn't been in the Champions League since 2014/15 and had only managed 2nd place finishes in the Eredivisie for 4 years. ETH transformed Ajax, winning the league for every full season he was in charge with an average of 2.46 points per game and scoring 3.1 goals per game. How did he do it? There were two philosophies, vertical tiki taka (in possession) and counter pressing (out of possession).
Vertical tiki taka, is possession based football but with an emphasis to play the ball forward and direct with a much higher tempo, essentially, pass the ball from defence to attack as quickly as possible. It is still a possession based style of football and much like the traditional tiki taka, you need defenders who are comfortable on the ball and can carry or make line breaking passes. You also need a deep lying playmaker and a libero, at Ajax, he had Schone and Frenkie De Jong respectively (more on this later). Looking at the image below, you’ll see how ETH has set up Manchester United, and it’s in the same mould in which he set up Ajax.
When Ajax lost the ball, they deployed a counter press. Meaning the closest player to the ball would press to try and regain possession within 5 seconds to try and capitalise on the unorganised defence. In the 21/22 UCL, only Liverpool had more possession and more successful pressures than Ajax (61% & 263). If they are unable to win the ball back, they often opted to go for a man to man marking system, meaning it was imperative individual players won their duels. The image shows how Manchester United set up in possession when looking to win the ball back, based on the Ajax system, but it also shows the "rest defence", the immediate average positions of where defenders should be when possession is lost.
Transfers & FFP
The style of football ETH wants requires all players to have great work rate off the ball and technical ability on the ball, being comfortable in possession and having the ability to play line breaking passes. The problem with that is twofold. Firstly, the players with those abilities are typically expensive and it’s not helpful when you're not adept in the transfer market and notoriously known for paying over the odds. For example, the eye watering purchases of Hojlund & Antony, totalling £146m were huge overpays, but at the insistence of ETH. Looking at the graphic below, you can see how none of the most expensive signings have had a positive career at the club.
The second issue is that the majority of current players don't fit that profile (contrary to what ETH says) and must be sold. Unfortunately, selling players has been a historic problem for Manchester United and it’s an issue Murtough has yet to fix.
The sales have been pitiful, for both first team players and academy players, even the Dean Henderson sale was in jeopardy after Nottingham Forest opted to sign Matt Turner from Arsenal instead. Going back a little further to summer 22/23, United had 8 players leave for a combined £19m with 5 players leaving on a free transfer. In terms of academy players, pure profit for FFP accounting, United have sold them for peanuts whilst the blue side of Manchester has earned £120m over two summers, with some players not playing a single minute of Premier League football.
Now whilst the inability to sell is not on ETH, it is a major contributing factor as to why we believe ETH will fail at Manchester United. Years of financial mismanagement in the transfer market have led to FFP constraints at Manchester United. Those constraints meant it was a one in, one out policy this summer and they failed to move on Harry Maguire, Donny Van De Beek, Scott McTominay & Anthony Martial. The knock on effect can’t be understated, failing to sell those players and upgrade them means you may find those players in the starting line up as the fixtures and injuries pile up, something that should not be happening. If ETH has a period of having to start Harry Maguire, in what world can he be successful?
The only quality upgrades that fit the system over two seasons have been Onana & Martinez, and whilst they massively help United play out from the back, they're not enough. What's more worrying is that ETH hasn't signed the one position he so desperately needs...
NO LIBERO
As mentioned above, ETH liked to use vertical tiki taka to create goal scoring opportunities. One key component of that team was having a libero, and these players are as cool as they sound. At Ajax, ETH had Frenkie De Jong (FDJ) who was the prototype and later, Ryan Gravenberch, who filled the role admirably although to a lesser extent.
The most important aspect of a libero, whether on or off the ball, is composure. When in possession, they are expected to start attacks from deep by receiving the ball with their back to goal, and either play first-time passes to progress the ball quickly or hold onto the ball and dribble through a team's press. When possession is won back during a counter press, a libero has the ability to play a quick line breaking pass to create a goal scoring opportunity. It cannot be understated how incredibly important this position is and it's why there was a very public saga when Manchester United tried to sign FDJ. Had Manchester United signed FDJ, this article would have been exploring how Manchester United will be challenging for the league.
Instead, Manchester United resorted to signing Casemiro, a destroyer that isn't as comfortable on the ball and who has struggled with the pace of the league at times. This season, United have gone on to sign Mason Mount & Sofiyan Amrabat, respectable players and improvements on McFred but still not the required role. And given it’s a critical component of ETH’s system, both on and off the ball, it’s maddening that they haven’t signed a libero. What makes these summer signings ever more surprising is that Liverpool signed Ryan Gravenberch, a player ETH admired and would have been a very good fit for the team.
Organised Press or Disorganised Mess?
We mentioned earlier that ETH used counter pressing at Ajax to great effect. Data from The Analyst showed that no other team has more shots on goal (11) after a turnover in the attacking third than Ajax in the 21/22 UCL. In fact, Ajax were 3rd best team in Europe with a 8.2 PPDA (passes played per defensive actions). It was successful as Ajax went man for man but it hasn’t been so far at Manchester United, and it’s not down to transfers but solely on coaching.
The first issue is that the rest defence (the defensive shape when attacking) is players are completely out of position. We showed how it should look earlier but image below shows the main issue, United continually overcommit and leave Casemiro isolated in the middle with too much space for opposition teams to counter. As the image shows, Bruno Fernandes is playing on the last line of defence, Casemiro & AWB all rush forward to win the ball back. If they fail, and the dribbler can win his individual battle and turn, they have about 80 yards of free space and can dribble to the Manchester United box unopposed or play a very simple pass into the forwards to hold up. what teams have been able to do all season, from the opening game against Wolves with Nunes & Cunha and the more recent game against Brentford with Wissa & Mbuemo, and it doesn’t look to be stopping anytime soon.
This was also an issue in the Eredivisie and Ajax did concede counter attacking goals, but the Premier League is a different beast. The image below shows
In 2020, ETH alluded to Pep Guardiola making the only mistake in his career, underestimating the power and speed of the league in his first season. When we read this quote as ETH took over Manchester United, we were excited. Why? It seemed as if ETH had done his homework and was coming to the Premier League understanding its differences. Unfortunately, ETH underestimated the power and speed of the Premier League too. Every team in the Premier League cannot only counter but with blistering pace and to devastating effect, and if you overcommit and leave Casemiro isolated, then those teams will take their chances. Why hasn’t ETH reacted and changed anything?
Do the players not understand how to press and what ETH requires from them? It was an issue under Rangnick and with fixture congestion last season, do they not have enough time on the training ground?
Does ETH not have a solution on how to set up any differently? Is he stuck in only understanding how to play that one style?
Is ETH stubborn and staying committed to gung ho counter pressing, despite the obvious problems?
Does ETH need more money, to get the players needed to play his style? Unfortunately, the bank of Manchester United has finally ran out of money.
Regardless of the reason, it's a huge issue that ETH needs to address and find the right balance. Failing to do so will teams will set up to counter and the home form may become as bad as the away.
Away Days
United's away form last season was atrocious, 1 point vs Top 9 away from home. It wasn't just the results but the manner in which they lost, an average of 3 goals conceded and humiliating results against their biggest rivals.
Last season, United finished 14 points off the top spot. If their away form was more respectable, even 4 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses, they would be Premier League champions. Now, we really do appreciate that this is a hypothetical situation but its purpose is to demonstrate how important those away games against those around you are because of the difference it can make to your season. Why was the away record so bad? Because of ETH's insistence to play his style of football, pressing on the front foot and allowing the best teams in the league to carve them open at will.
So after a pre season and some time on the training ground, did ETH change his approach coming into this season with 2 early away games in North London? No, 2 losses with an average of 2.5 goals conceded. Baby steps, eh?
What makes this more surprising is that Ole managed to achieve something remarkable with United not too long ago. Between February 2020 and September 2021, United went 29 away league games unbeaten (W19 D10), the longest run of any side in English top-flight history. In that run, United kept 13 clean sheets and scored 53 goals, an average of 1.8 goals per game. If ETH does not adapt to counter attacking football and continues to be embarrassed on the road against the top teams, he won't be in charge for much longer.
The Circus
It's not all on ETH, his tactics and his transfer targets, there's an absolute mess off the field too. If you don't believe off the field issues affect a club, look no further than Arsenal in the last few years. Arsenal were a club in freefall, having not been in the Champions League for a number of years and back to back 8th place league finishes. The issues off the field were just as bad as the football on it: ownership and investment questions over Kroenke & Usmanov, anger over the management decisions & transfer strategy from directors (Gazidis & Sanllehi), and public drama with key players in Ozil & Aubameyang. There's no coincidence that the stability Josh Kroenke, Edu & Arteta have provided off the field has resulted in success on it. For Ten Hag, despite his best efforts, he doesn't have the same competence in directors & owners that will help enable on pitch success. The big thing that Edu, Arteta and Kroenke were able to do was change the culture of the club, Ten Hag can make all the successful changes he wants but without that change in culture coming from above, sustained success will always elude them.
Let's start with the players. Ten Hag inherited an aging Ronaldo and despite Ronaldo's best attempts to kick up a fuss, he was moved swiftly on and Ten Hag dealt with the situation perfectly. David De Gea has been a stalwart for the club, but bad performances in key games showed the ruthless side to Ten Hag, again moving him on without too much fanfare. Finally, you have the whole Mason Greenwood saga, which highlights how Arnold & Murtough are completely out of their depth with key decision making but Ten Hag seemed unfazed and focused on football.
The main problem is, the drama from the players doesn't seem to be stopping anytime soon. Harry Maguire's captaincy was a big talking point last season and with Manchester United failing to move him on this window, he will always be talked about in the media, a distraction that Murtough should have solved. Jadon Sancho, moved away from the spotlight last season and given time off yet recently released an Instagram post contradicting Ten Hag, there's a ticking time bomb if I've ever seen one. Then there's the latest United winger to be accused of domestic abuse in Antony, it's truly ridiculous and if we see how Manchester United handled the Greenwood saga, I have no doubt that Arnold will do the same here. There seems to be a never ending drama with players at Manchester United, and whilst Ten Hag has truly done an incredible job handling it so far, it doesn't seem to be stopping any time soon.
If you thought the players were bad, the owners are worse. The way the Glazers bought and have run the club has angered nearly every United fan, and culminated in protests to stop the Liverpool game and closing the Megastore on matchdays on numerous occasions. Then came the joyous news that they were willing to sell, or are they? After instructing Raine Group to entertain and vet bids, reports seem to suggest that their valuations have not been met and they're no longer looking to sell. The limbo of the sale seemed to frustrate ETH, partly because it left the transfer window in limbo and so he won't be happy at this news and the added drama it will most definitely bring. A peaceful sit-in was observed after the Forest game with 5000 fans taking part but if the news is true that the Glazers are no longer willing to sell, there's no doubt there will be more protests and disruption that ETH does not need.
TL;DR
Eric Ten Hag will struggle to replicate his Ajax success at Manchester United unless he severely changes the way they play and is able to continue to get the right players in.
At Ajax, ETH used two systems on and off the ball, vertical tiki taka (possession based fast paced passing) & counter pressing (regain the ball in 5 seconds or revert to defensive shape).
To play these two styles of football, you need players that work hard but also very technically gifted and comfortable on the ball. Onana & Martinez are great but the rest of the defence and midfield do not have the qualities needed, the lack of a libero is glaring.
Manchester United's counter press has failed so far, with teams in the Premier League able to counter with their directness and speed too comfortably. This is a coaching issue and ETH must find the balance.
ETHs stubbornness to adapt away from home against the big teams continues to be an issue. Last season he managed 1 point from 9 games. Already this season, United have been too open and lost twice, conceding 2.5 on average.
The off the field issues for Manchester United are not stopping. Last season he had to deal with Ronaldo, DDG and the captaincy with Maguire. This season already it's been Greenwood, Sancho, Antony.
The Glazers reportedly may not sell which may raise further disruption in fan protests.