The problem facing Ange’s Spurs
Ange Postecoglou has started his spell in North London brightly with the return of a vibrant, front-foot style of football leading to positive early results. So how can this early momentum the Aussie has created be turned into something more sustainable and long lasting? Because Spurs have been here before – the 2013/2014, 2019/2020 and 2022/2023 seasons all started with real optimism, new signings and title talk before flaming out. One key piece to the puzzle is transfers, because this is an area Spurs have consistently failed. In 2013, Spurs sold Bale and ended with £100m+ spent with no success, followed that with years of countless mishaps and mistakes and now have sold Harry Kane. So whilst the early signs are positive, Spurs need consistent success in the transfer market to give Ange the right tools to succeed.
In this analysis, we explore the signings Spurs have made, the issues that have plagued them when operating in the transfer market, and how they can cement this new dawn. Brace yourselves, Spurs fans, you may relive some painful memories.
The matrix
Now, we aren’t talking about the Keanu Reeves movie, although I’m sure Daniel Levy did his best Neo impression dodging Harry Kane bids this last summer. We’ve looked at all of Spurs’ transfer business starting with the arrival of Mauricio Pochettino in summer 2014: 9 years, 52 players, £820m spent, and we put them all into the following matrix; which breaks players down by their expected role within the squad and their success.
The numbers in each box represent that category, e.g. 21% of all players are prospects that are flops. The top 3 highest percentages are all flops, across all 3 player types.
Whilst every player was broken down based on our opinions and you may disagree with a few of them, the results are absolutely clear, only 10% of players could be considered a hit. Branding any purchase made in 2022/23 as a flop is harsh as time is still on their side, and they have the chance to turn it around under a new manager with a different system (e.g., Yves Bissouma seems to be thriving under Ange and Romero & Kulusevski should end up in the HIT column). However, we can only base these rankings from what we’ve seen so far, and none of them have made their mark yet.
One interesting side note is how Spurs have brought per position:
Spurs love a full back with £207m spent on 12 players. Unfortunately, there is a real struggle to find the right one with 8 (67%) being considered a FLOP.
Central midfield (including AM’s & DM’s) has seen the most investment, with £224m spent, and their most successful area (that’s not saying much). There is only one HIT in Bentacur but numerous solid squad players in Hojbjerg, Sissoko and Wanyama. Although, 2 of the 4 FLOPs were Giovani Lo Celso and Tanguy Ndombele who cost a combined £102m.
The North London side have particularly struggled to recruit goalkeepers and strikers, with 11 signed in total (6 GKs; 5 STs) and all of them failing. This is likely informed by Spurs being unable to sign the right players to back up nailed on starters in Hugo Lloris and Harry Kane.
Obviously there is an inherent risk with transfers (usually clubs operate at around a 50% hit rate), but Spurs are well below par at just 10%. We’ve looked at what might be causing this and what needs to be done to help Ange succeed.
MANAGERIAL MERRY GO ROUND
Pochettino worked miracles with a squad that lacked investment as Levy focused on building a new stadium, and truthfully, it’s a beautiful stadium that was worth the sacrifice. Yet the 2019 Champions League final could have been a real turning point for the club and elevated their stature as a possible elite destination, instead it precipitated a complete change of philosophy. Over the last four years, Spurs have not been what anyone would call stable, typified by their managers. Levy went from a hungry manager, in Pochettino, with a strong set of principles based around pressing, attacking football with a core set of young players who he moulded into his image to Jose Mourinho, whose principles are based on defensive solidity, soaking up pressure and counter attacking requiring specific profiles of players (usually experienced/established first teamers) to play his way. It’s a total style change that relies on different players too, players who were developing under Poch and used to playing found themselves quickly pushed to the side. And it doesn’t stop there, Daniel Levy has shifted from Pochettino to Mourinho to Nuno to Conte to Ange. Essentially, Spurs have had four different managers with differing philosophies and different requirements of the squad.
The graphic shows the style changes from coach to coach, and just how different each type of manager was.
Even the searches themselves have been ridiculous, especially when you look at the six weeks between firing Mourinho to hiring Nuno. In those 6 weeks, 3 different people headed up the managerial search and all with different styles. According to the Athletic, initially Steve Hitchen drew up a managerial short list of exciting managers but Julian Nagelsmann, Hansi Flick and Erik Ten Hag all chose higher profile jobs (something that we will touch on again) whilst Pochettino was not going to be let go by PSG. Then came a leadership change and restructure where Paratici took over and so the Italian obsession began, with Conte, Foncesca and Gattuso all considered. However, Levy interjected and pulled the plug on Gattuso in the final hour. Finally, Levy decided to take over and shortlisted Potter and Nuno, but Paratici convinced him that Nuno was the right choice due to his tactical flexibility. Well, we know how that turned out but the bigger point here is the constant change in direction and style all within a crazy six week period. The consequence of this has inevitably bled into a haphazard recruitment strategy. They’ve never been able to strike the balance of a squad with sufficient STARTERS, SQUAD players, and PROSPECTS.
LEVY THE GAMBLER
Daniel Levy being in charge of recruitment in the last few years has hindered Tottenham, and that’s because Levy is addicted to finding prospects and hoping they turn into gems, and it shows in his squad investment strategy. Rather than going out to buy the best talent Spurs can attract and improving the first team as much as possible to compete, Levy consistently looks to turn prospects into star players. Now, we do understand where this comes from to an extent, Kyle Walker, Gareth Bale, Luka Modric and Harry Kane are all great examples of it working but it doesn’t work often enough to build a competitive team. Daniel Levy, has consistently aimed to place multiple bets per window on prospects which eats into the budget.
The first issue for this strategy is that the managers clearly don’t want the players. Just last season Spurs spent £30m+ on Djed Spence and Destiny Udogie and neither were wanted by Conte. You can go further back and look at Poch & Sessegnon and Nuno & Bryan Gil. And because the managers don’t want them, there’s no plan in place to develop the player, integrate them into the first team and establish them as a starter. No matter how talented a player maybe as a prospect, if the coach doesn’t believe in and play you, you won’t develop. What you’re left with is a player you’re trying to move out on loan, again with no plan, or they’re left to whither on the bench and labelled a bad investment. We are not against buying prospects, but it’s imperative that there needs to be a plan to develop and play these players for them to become realise their potential.
This is not to say Conte wasn’t backed, he most definitely was, but Levy and Paratici were trying to have their cake and eat it too by employing two very different strategies at the same time. The second issue with that is by buying prospects that a manager doesn’t want, you’re taking money away from other positions. With Conte, the use of these funds meant they brought in budget option for the left centre back role so crucial to Conte’s system in the shape of Clement Lenglet on loan. It maybe a case that the club don’t want to back a manager any further, which begs the questions as to why you hired him?
In essence, time and again Spurs have built squads that consist of a few nailed-on starters, a number of struggling and underperforming who were expected to be first team starters, a bunch of loans/very average players who probably shouldn’t have been brought in the first place, and a host of young punts that they’ve rolled the dice on, unsure whether they’ll make it as Premier League players with no plan to develop them. That’s a recipe for mediocrity, at best.
s-PURGATORY
Whether it’s a consequence of Daniel Levy’s management, we aren’t sure, but the club are in a unique position in the market. Are they a true “big six” club, capable of consistently outmuscling others for stars? Yes, they are one of the Premier League’s bigger fishes, but they inevitably lose when they come head to head for a player or manager against other big clubs as they’re not viewed as the final destination to win silverware. They were unable to attract a number of managers in their recent search, with Nagelsmann, Hansi Flick and Erik Ten Hag all choosing other roles, arguably more prestigious roles, and missed out on players such as Sadio Mane, Willian and Eden Hazard to league rivals. Right now, this leaves them operating below the elite level of the market, with a lack of understanding of how to operate in the transfer market as they are a big club with big expectations but can’t compete for elite players.
Financially, Spurs aren’t competing on the same level either. Whilst it is respectable that Spurs have built a beautiful stadium and invested in a sustainable way, which should be the league norm, they are lagging behind the rest of their league rivals on all fronts: total spend, net spend, income from transfers, everything.
Spend of Top Premier League clubs across the last 10 years, with Spurs in dead last, nearly half of the leading 4 and overtaken by Saudi backed Newcastle United. (In Euros)
To help bridge that gap and help Ange as much as possible, there needs to be a change in strategy. Quite simply, Spurs need to stop trying to develop talent (which is failing miserably) and become a selling club that showcases talent. We aren’t saying that Spurs should go full ‘Brighton’, where the entire strategy revolves around spotting, developing and then selling emerging talents. But more of a Borussia Dortmund, where players are eager to go there as they will have the chance to play, develop slightly but more importantly put themselves on a bigger stage to get the move to the biggest clubs. There are a number of players in world football currently who:
Have good experience of top level football (including playing in the UCL & World Cup)
Possess enough quality to immediately improve the playing level of the Spurs squad
Young enough to develop and add sell for profit
Now ‘showcasing talent’ isn’t without risk - Ndombele and Lo Celso show that - but these are the type of players they should be targeting. And whilst Ndombele has been a catastrophic failure, Lo Celso showed his true quality under Unai Emery and being a key player in getting Villareal to the UCL semi-finals. The important thing about these players is they don’t need to develop much more, and more often, just being surrounded by better players will make them better. They just need a bigger platform to showcase their ability.
There is an added benefit, especially for clubs run in the correct, sustainable way; these players can be sold for huge profits. Players such as Bruno Guimaraes, Lucas Paqueta, Joao Palhinha were all shining at their clubs and were ready for high profile moves to showcase their talent at the next level, and this summer all have been linked with moves to the elite at 2x/3x what Newcastle, West Ham and Fulham paid. By showcasing and selling talent, Spurs will be able to close the spending gap to their league rivals and generate income that can be re-invested into the squad. The beauty in this strategy is that once you have enough talented players, you can stop selling and immediately go and challenge, by making a big splash and buying an elite talent to take you over the edge. People get worried when they hear selling club as it may mean a team lacks ambition, but it’s truly a great strategy to help propel a club, as shown by Borussia Dortmund and their sales.
Transfer income from sales by both Tottenham Hotspur (278.8) & Borussia Dortmund (556), in €m
The graphic clearly shows how little Spurs are able to generate from sales, Harry Kane accounts for over a third of total Spurs sales and even then, they are still at 50% of what Borussia Dortmund have been able to generate. As mentioned earlier, Spurs don’t know how to develop talent and therefore, a lot of these players end up leaving for large losses. In fact, they’ve had 10 players leave on a free in the last 5 years along with a handful of woeful loans. On the other hand, Borussia Dortmund have managed to raise €556M in just 5 years, money that is reinvested into the more players and led to challenging for the league last season, only missing out on the final day. If Spurs are able to copy the Borussia Dortmund blueprint, they can propel Ange to new heights.
A New Dawn from Down Under?
The good news for Spurs is that over the last 2 years they’ve made numerous signings that fit this mould. We’d classify Bentancur, Kulusevski, Romero, Richarlison and latterly, Maddison and Brennan Johnson as ideal Spurs signings. They’ve all showcased high quality at different times and have come through key development phases so Spurs can give them a platform to shine and add the finishing touches on their development. Now, while they don’t want to be known as a selling club, they can point to the likes of Kane and Bale and say we can take you the absolute elite, although the reputation of Levy as a hard negotiator may impede them. As mentioned before, there are more of these players out there, players such as Florian Wirtz, Xavi Simons, Florentino Luis, Diogo Costa and Olise who were all shining at their clubs and were ready for high profile moves to showcase their talent at the next level.
We discuss the potential transfer strategy and players who would fit into that in a behind the scenes video if you want to hear more of our takes.
Spurs are at another new juncture with Ange Postecoglou coming in and, unless something goes terribly wrong, the Australian will be moulding this squad in his image over the next few years so he can execute his tactical vision in the best possible way. He’s already started with James Maddison and Micky Van De Ven, and following Kane’s departure, Brennan Johnson. True success for Spurs will come if they can repeat this approach and buy to a strategy that works for the club and the manager rather than operating all over the place. In Ange, they have a manager who is more similar to Pochettino than Mourinho or Conte, and is willing to work and develop a young squad. It’s fair to say the first test has been passed but there are a lot more to come, starting in January.
TLDR
Spurs have spent £820m on 52 transfers over the past 10 years (not including 23/24 transfers) with only 10% (5 out of 52) being considered a HIT – well below the market average of 50%.
Over the years, there has been a lack of strategy with Spurs bouncing around from style to style and manager to manager meaning they’ve built a mishmash squad of players who play different styles aligned to previous managers
The recruitment has been haphazard and has seen only £67.5m spent on SQUAD players vs £152m on PROSPECTS without having the right manager in place to develop them
There is a lack of understanding how to operate in the space in the transfer market in which they exist, they are a big club with big expectations but can’t compete for elite players, they are happy to sell but aren’t a selling club akin to Brighton. They are in purgatory and need to work out how to become more comfortable.
The good news is that the tide is turning. We believe they need to operate as showcase platform that focuses on bringing in those players who are ready to make the next step. Over the last few years they’ve got this right with the signings of Kulusevski, Romero, Bentancur, Richarlison, Maddison and Johnson, and they’ve passed the first test following Kane’s departure.
Ange is lifting spirits of Spurs supporters, they’ve got off to a great start this season playing a front-foot vibrant style of football, and he’s reinventing previously struggling players and the new signings are off to a great start. But the only way the Aussie will achieve sustained success is with the right signings over multiple transfer windows.
Finally, don’t bet like Levy, gamble responsibly.